Doctorate – It’s not only a game: soccer as a channel to violence
Advisor: Prof. Dr. Raphael Bottura Corbi
Comission: Profs. Drs. Luis Eduardo Negrão Meloni, Pedro Henrique Thibes Forquesato and Marislei Nishijima
Class: 217, FEA-5
This project studies the impact of emotional shocks induced by the results of brazilian soccer games in the period from 2006 from 2016 in the violent behavior of individuals. I assume the risk of violence being a function of the soccer games results. The key hypotesis is that conditional on the implied probabilities given by betting markets before the game, the actual results can be seen as random. I use the fact of soccer clubs distribution along the country being very spread, not only concentrated in the local state of the club (as happens in the NFL distribution of supporters) so I can mesure the proportion of people being affected by emotional shocks induced by soccer games in a given day. The emotional shock is given by the difference between the amount of individuals affected by positive shocks and the amount affected by negative shocks. I consider a schock when the result of the match differs from the predicted by the beting markets. The baseline result indicates that each 1 p.p. in the number of individuals receiving negative shocks in a given municipallity elevates the expected number of deaths caused by agressions in 7.6%. A análise extensiva do modelo indica que o efeito é mais intenso para óbitos masculinos, principalmente àqueles ocorridos na rua. O número de mortes femininas ocorridas em casa aumenta de forma significante diante de choques negativos. The model extension analysis indicates that the effect is more intensive for men death, mainly the ones occuring in the streets. The number of women deaths occuring at home elevates significantly when a negative shock occurs.
*Abstract provided by the author