Robson Rodrigues Pereira
Doctorate – Essays on the impacts of domestic and external monetary policy news shocks on the brazilian economy
Advisor: Prof. Dr. Márcio Issao Nakame
Comission: Profs. Drs. Gian Paulo Soave, Paulo Picchetti and Roseli da Silva
Class: 217, FEA-5
This thesis consists of two papers assessing the impact of monetary shocks on the Brazilian economy. Using a closed economy framework, the first paper “Exogenous and anticipated changes to the inflation target and effects on the Brazilian economy” assesses how changes to perceptions of economic agents regarding future changes to the inflation target explain changes in output, inflation and long-term market interest rates. The second paper, “Forward Guidance by the Fed and effects on emerging economies: the case of Brazil” assesses how anticipated changes to U.S. monetary policy affect the same variables studied in the first paper, applying a small open economy framework. In a context where the Central Bank reacts to deviations of inflation from the target, the two papers conclude that shocks to the inflation target are permanent and generate significant effects on the three endogenous variables analyzed.
*Abstract provided by the author