Alan André Borges Da Costa
Doctorate – An analysis of the distributive eﬀects of public policies and their spillovers
Advisor: Prof. Dr. Ricardo de Abreu Madeira
Comission: Profs. Drs. Naercio Aquino Menezes Filho, Bruno Ferman and Cristine Campos de Xavier Pinto
The aim of this work is to deﬁne, identify and estimate the direct, indirect, total andsaturation eﬀects (proportion of treated subjects) on the several quantiles of the outcomevariable in the presence of treatment spillover. Exploring the variation resulting fromtwo stage randomization, we propose estimators to measure the horizontal and verticaldistances (marginal quantile) between treatment and control groups. In addition wedeﬁned, identiﬁed and estimated the derivative of the marginal quantile with respectto saturation by decomposing it into direct and spillover eﬀects. Finally, the empiricalapplication uses the database of a random experiment performed in Mexico that allowsus to estimate the proposed objects using the participation and trust indexes in poorcommunities as outcome variables. The results show that there are direct eﬀects, positiveand negative, for the tails of the distribution. An additional exercise reveals evidence ofheterogeneous spillover eﬀects. With this database it is not possible to state for a givenpercentile that there is a relationship, positive or negative, between marginal quantilesand the several levels saturation, that is, it is not evident that increasing the proportionof treated subjects will result in greater (direct or spillover) eﬀects of treatment.
*Abstract provided by the author